As we reach week four of the 2026 Guinness Six Nations, the competition once again proves to be as elusive as ever. To try and predict the outcomes of these extraordinary matches proves more and more difficult as the weeks and rounds go by.
England
Before the tournament started England were standing over 11 straight wins, including wins over New Zealand, Australia and Argentina and looking to be in an incredibly powerful position with talk of them targeting a Grand Slam (given their preferable home draws). A dominant performance against Wales at home in the opening week did nothing to dampen those hopes. All that changed in week 2 of the championship with Scotland dismantling Borthwick’s machine. Scotland had an answer for everything England could throw and them and took their chances when it counted, seemingly bursting ‘Borthwick Ball’.
Fast forward to week three and Ireland who were another team under pressure evidently took a leaf out of the Scotland playbook and utterly dismantled England in Twickenham last week in a performance that has rejuvenated the Irish coach and team.
Now, in the space of three weeks Steve Borthwick looks like a man under severe pressure to keep his job as England head coach. England face a team high on confidence in Italy this weekend, who will be licking their lips at the prospect of beating England for the first time in their history in Rome.
Italy
Perhaps the surprise package of the tournament, Italy look to continuously improve after stunning the rugby public with a win over the Scots in week one. Another stellar display against Ireland in Dublin proved that they are a team on the up.
Being beaten comprehensively by the French in Paris will have come as a blow but it’s won’t derail the progress of this team so much given France’s utter dominance of the tournament so far. At the start of the tournament, Italy may well have been seen to be battling it out with Wales to avoid the wooden spoon – could they now dare to dream for a third or even second place finish? A win over England this weekend would certainly provide some credibility to that dream.
Ireland
What of Ireland. After a disappointing opening weekend clash with the French in which the performance did not meet the standard we have to come to expect from this Irish team – even French coach Fabien Galthié commenting that ‘for 50 minutes, we forgot we were playing Ireland’. That comment paired with the performance would have indeed stung the Irish to the point where every press conference we heard from anyone in the Ireland team, they constantly referenced the term intent. It almost felt like they were trying to convince themselves and it didn’t look like it was working with a stumbling victory over Italy.
There were signs of the corner being turned in the closing 20 minutes of the Italy game but nothing could have prepared the Irish fans for the dazzling display in South West London. Now, all of a sudden the Irish team looks fresh and with a definite roadmap towards the World Cup having used 33 players in the tournament so far. Farrell has looked to strengthen the pack in particular but there have also been notable inclusions in the backline with Robert Baloucoune and Stuart McCloskey in particular taking their chances with both hands and looking like two of the most important players for Ireland right now.
Ireland will be looking to a victory this weekend over Wales to target the Triple Crown, and even dare to hope Scotland can cause an upset against the French this weekend to give them any chance of an unlikely Championship.
Scotland
Scotland have for as long as the memory serves struggled to back up big performance after big performance. Scotland arrived into the tournament with an air of confidence however the opening weekend shock against Italy threw all of that confidence out the window… at least for a week. Round two saw Scotland discover the plan on how to beat England… a template the Irish expanded on.
A sketchy win over Wales in round three did nothing to dispel the worries of inconsistency for this Scottish side however. This weekend sees them come up against the mighty France at home. There have been times when the French have struggled in Murrayfield so what happens if Scotland pull off an upset… Are they back?
It may sound harsh to suggest the next two games are crucial to get something out of especially when the opponents are France and Ireland but if Scotland lose those two games and finish the championship with barely scraping by Wales and a good performance against England then the tropes of inconsistency will remain.
Wales
The Wales Rugby Union (WRU) has been in significant financial trouble for years now. The club structures have been impacted severely which has undoubtedly impacted their ability to bring through players to the caliber they would have in previous years. They have also had player strikes, structural issues and stopgap managers to add to their woes.
With all that being said, the Welsh players for the most part have played with typical Welsh passion and flair. The backline have proved to look dangerous for periods throughout the championship. The issue however is they do not have the firepower and moral looks incredibly low at this point.
A heavy defeat against Ireland tomorrow could set up a very nervy final weekend where they face the in-form Italy. A third wooden spoon in a row would be a disaster for the WRU both morally and financially.
France
Undoubtedly the team of the tournament so far and look set for a Grand Slam. They’re strong in almost every aspect of their game. Antoine Dupont has hit the ground running after a long injury lay off to show with each game why he is arguably the best player in the world as he pulls the strings for the French.
However it is not just DuPont that light the Parisian sky up. Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Théo Attissogbe look dangerous whenever they get the ball in hand, combine this with Thomas Ramos seemingly incapable of missing kicks from the tee and France look like they are always capable of racking up points. The one area in which Scotland could upset is the scrum which has to date not been tested with any great significance. Could this be the foundation in which Scotland derail the French machine and as such kick start (again) their own tournament, we shall see this Saturday.
USRN 
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